키자드에 등록된 총 64개의 포스트를 확인하실 수 있습니다.
SCFI rates ended a four-week uptrend. SCFI, a global shipping rate index, recorded 4221.96 as of the 17th, down 11.35 points from the previous week. The SCFI peaked above the 5,100 level for the..
In the 26th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
The global container freight rate index(SCFI), which saw its rise in five weeks last week, declined for the second week in a row. SCFI recorded 4216.13, down 5.83 points from the 17th. The overall..
On June 23, the dry freight rate index (BDI) closed at 2,331, down 247 points from last Friday. In the bulk carrier market this week, BDI fell due to a sharp decline in Cape, but Panamax and Supra..
Further progress regarding the labor-management agreement for the western port of the United States has not been disclosed, but it is understood that it is taking time to negotiate port automatio..
The supply and demand status of container ships/dry bulk carriers/tankers/LNG carriers analyzed in March has been updated. This report is updated on a quarterly basis to provide a macro investmen..
In the 24th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
1. Overview The principle of smoothing is to remove noise from the data by averaging several observations. The smoothing method can be divided into a moving average method and a simple exponent..
Global shipping rates(SCFI) rose for the fourth week in a row. While routes to the Americas and the Mediterranean continued to decline, South America and the Middle East continued to rise. ccordin..
On June 10, the dry freight rate index (BDI) closed at 2,320, down 22 points from the previous day. On this day, the bulk market continued to decline as the surplus of ships was not resolved due t..
Let's take a look at the negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA). Currently, the ILWU and the PMA expect labor negotia..
In the 25th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on June 17 closed at 2578, up 258 points from last Friday. Following the previous day, the bulk market recorded an upward trend due to the steady inflow of new cargo vol..
The global container freight rate index(SCFI), which rebounded for the first time in 18 weeks, rose for the second week in a row. According to the industry, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (S..
On May 27, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2,681, down 252 points from the previous day. Last week, the bulk market was down in all directions, with the Cape market crashing. According to for..
In the 23rd week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
Global shipping Freights(SCFI) continued to rise for the third week in a row. On the other hand, routes to the Americas and the Mediterranean continued to decline, continuing the weakness during t..
On June 1, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2,633, up 67 points from the previous day. On this day, the bulk market showed a recovery trend due to the inflow of new cargo from Cape Ships, and..
In the 21st week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
As of the 20th, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which represents bulk carrier freights, stood at 3,344 points, up 8 percent from the previous week. Freights on the super-large Capesize jumped 14 perce..
The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose 14.86 points (0.36%) from the previous week to 4162.69 as of the 20th. It is the first time in 18 weeks since January 7th that SCFI has returned to..
1. Progress of negotiations The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has asked several sources close to negotiations to suspend contract negotiations with the Pacific Maritime Assoc..
Highlights of this month : -. Lowering demand forecasts: Drewry lowered its demand forecast to '22 (existing 4.6% -> 4.1%) and '23 (existing 3.5% -> 2.8%). One of the many factors is that macroeco..
In the 22nd week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
Global container shipping fares have fallen for 16 consecutive weeks. However, some routes are moving upward, raising speculation that the decline in fares may be ending. According to the shipp..
As of May 06, the Baltic Freight Index (BDI), which indicates the freight rate for bulk carriers, was 2,513.67 points, up 4.8% from the previous week. The main reason for the rise is that the rise i..
Let's take a look at the future direction of container shipping rates(SCFI) based on the import volume forecast announced by the NRF. 1. Monthly U.S. Retail Import Volume Trend US ports co..
Following the Russia-Ukraine war, many countries, including the United States, are sanctioning Russia. In particular, the United States and the European Union (EU) have agreed to exclude Russia fr..
In the 20th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
Global container shipping rates fell for the 17th week in a row. However, routes to the Middle East jumped more than $100, partially recovering from the decline. According to the shipping industry..
On May 13, the dry freight rate index (BDI) closed at 3,104, up 386 points from the previous week. In the bulk market, as the cape ship continued to surge, BDI again broke this year's high. However,..
Let's take a look at the labor-management negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which will greatly affect the contai..
On April 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2,307, up 68 points from the previous day. In the bulk market, the market conditions of Cape Ships and Panamax Ships were mixed. The Cape market,..
1. Operation and supply and demand When the US commercial oil inventory was reduced by 80.2 million barrels compared to the previous week, unlike the market expectation (2.5 million barrels ↑) as o..
In this article, I'm going to compare the superiority of the models by periodically predicting/verifying the freight rates using ARIMA and logistic regression models. 1. Last Week’s forecasts..
As of April 29, the Baltic Freight Index (BDI), which indicates the freight rate for bulk carriers, was 2,404 points, up 4.2% from the previous week. This is because freight rates for large ships..
Global container shipping rates fell for the 15th week in a row. As the lockdown in Shanghai, China lasted for more than a month, it is analyzed that the amount of exports from China has decreased..
In the 19th week, BDI and SCFI predicted values and actual values are compared and tested. 1. Last Week’s forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast Actual B..
In July 2014, the sabotage was prolonged due to the start of a strike by the western port unions in the United States, causing major disruptions to logistics in 2015. At that time, an agreement co..
The BDI, SCFI predicted last week and the average actual BDI, SCFI the last week (4/11~14) are compared and tested. 1. Last week's forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted Date Last week Forecast..
The Baltic Freight Index(BDI) rose for three consecutive trading days, reaching its highest level in seven trading days since April 5. According to the Baltic Shipping Exchange on the 14th, BDI wa..
Global container freight rates, which hit all-time highs earlier this year, have fallen for the 13th week in a row. This is due to the decrease in the amount of exports from China due to the lockd..
1. Outline Recently, as the number of infections surged due to the spread of the Omicron mutation, China extended the Shanghai city lockdown period, raising concerns about a global maritime..
The comparison and test of BDI and SCFI predicted last week and Actual BDI and SCFI last week are compared and tested. Through the process of comparing the prediction error and direction of the pr..
SCFI fell for 14 weeks in a row, the lowest in nine months. It is evaluated that shipping rates, which have risen sharply since the beginning of last year due to the global logistics crisis, have..
As of April 01, SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded 4,348.71. 73.8% higher than the same period last year. The average price for the last five years('15-‘19) of SCFI is 818.57, an..
As of March 24, BDI(Baltic Dry Index) recorded 2,357. 17.3% higher than the same period last year(’21 YTD vs ’22 YTD). Looking at the BDI 60-day moving average in the graph below, it can be seen..
Logistic regression is a model specific to the relationship between a predictor and a response variable, and extends the concept of linear regression to a case where the dependent variable Y is ca..
By using the regression algorithm of SVM, which is a representative algorithm of machine learning, I want to predict the recently soaring container freight index. Machine learning is one of the..
The BDI and SCFI predicted last week and the average actual BDI and SCFI values of the last week are compared and tested. From this analysis, the forecast value was predicted by adding the logisti..
As of April 08, SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded 4,263.66. The average price for the last five years('15-‘19) of SCFI is 801.84, and the 22 year-to-date value of 4,767.02 is 49..
As of April 8, BDI(Baltic Dry Index) recorded 2,055. It has been declining for four weeks since early March. Looking at the BDI moving average, the BDI index was below the 30-days moving average at..
International oil prices, triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, have taken a smooth after a sharp rise (February and March). The recent absence of additional sanctions on Russian crude oil from Weste..
As of March 25, SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded 4,434.07. 72.5% higher than the same period last year. The average SCFI of the last five years ('15-19) was 675.19, indicating t..
As of March 24, BDI(Baltic Dry Index) recorded 2,544. 17.2% higher than the same period last year(YTD vs YTD). In particular, the fare for the Cape, which is twice the size of the Panamax, is rath..
By using ‘ARIMA’, a representative time series model mainly used in econometrics, the future price of BDI, a bulk carrier rate index, and SCFI, a container freight rate index, will be predicted..
IMO Announces Technical Regulations and Operational Measures to Regulate Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1. The main plan is to reduce the carbon intensity of ships by 70% by 2050 compared to the 2008s a..
1. Introduction In this study, as factors that affect BDI, a representative dry cargo freight rate index, the causal relationship between the supply-side capacity and congestion ratio and the dema..
Firstly, the BDI and SCFI values predicted last week and the average actual BDI and SCFI values of this week are compared and tested. 1. Last week's forecasts 1-1. BDI, Actual Vs. Predicted..
As of March 18, BDI(Baltic Dry Index) recorded 2,605. 17.4% higher than the same period last year 1. Capesize Weekly Trend 1-1. Weekly Market Briefings Decline adjusted due to del..
As of March 18, SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded 4,540. 75.7% higher than the same period last year. However, the SCFI rate index declined for 9 consecutive weeks, reflecting the..
1. Ship order by ship type 1-1. Dry bulk Looking at the order book for dry bulk ships, 24,524,422DWT in 2022 / 26,968,050DWT in 2023 / 11,010,940DWT in 2024 are scheduled to be de..
The SCFI freight rate index, which represents the containership market, has been on a downward trend for 9 consecutive weeks since its peak on January 7, 22-year. Let's take a look at the congestion..